A High-Stakes Bet on a Scarce Resource

What if the future of Europe's auto industry depended on a material that barely exists? That is the gamble at the heart of the European Union's new Industrial Accelerator Act, unveiled on March 4, 2026 . Under the plan, automakers must cut tailpipe CO₂ emissions by 90% by 2035. The remaining 10% can be compensated for—but not just by any means. The EU is mandating that a portion of this compensation come from using low-carbon "green steel" made in Europe, a product that is currently scarce, expensive, and lacks a clear definition .

90%
2035 Tailpipe Cut
7%
Green Steel Allowance
30%
Estimated Price Premium

How the Automotive Package Works

The EU's strategy, embedded within the Industrial Accelerator Act, creates a new flexibility mechanism for automakers facing the 2035 CO₂ reduction targets. While the headline goal remains a 90% cut in "tailpipe" emissions, the remaining 10% can be offset through a combination of two specific methods :

Offset Method Allowed Contribution
CO₂-reduced steel (EU-made) Up to 7%
E-fuels & renewable fuels Up to 3%

This means that in practice, vehicles with internal combustion engines, including plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), range extenders, and mild hybrids, could still be sold after 2035, provided their manufacturers can secure enough certified green steel to balance their fleet emissions .

The Definition 'Wild West'

One steel executive described today's market for green steel as a "wild west," with companies using varying terms, metrics, and thresholds to market their lower-emission products .

The lack of a standardized definition for "green" or "low-carbon" steel is a major stumbling block. In the days leading up to the Act's release, reports emerged that the European Commission had scrapped plans for a specific emissions label for steel, which would have provided this much-needed clarity .

An EU official cited concerns that the label would increase bureaucracy, especially as another product-labeling law is already being drafted . Eurofer, the European steel association, warned that delaying the label "risks pushing decisions back in time at a moment when investors are looking for certainty" .

The Supply Problem: Too Little, Too Late

Even if a definition existed, the physical supply of green steel is a critical issue. Planned annual green steel capacity globally is projected to reach around 28 million tons by 2050. However, Reuters calculations show that only a third of that capacity is actually under construction .

European capacity: Around 18 million tons of planned capacity would be in Europe, but major projects from companies like Thyssenkrupp and ArcelorMittal have faced delays, pauses, or cancellations . ArcelorMittal's CFO, Genuino Christino, admitted: "We don't really have hydrogen available—at least not in the scale needed" .

The cost of green hydrogen, a key input for the most ambitious low-carbon steel production routes, remains prohibitively high. When the steel does become available, it is expected to cost about a third more than the conventional product, according to Stegra, a green steel hopeful .

Automakers Pivot to Scrap-Based Solutions

Confronted with these realities, many steelmakers are pivoting to a more cautious, step-by-step strategy centered on electric arc furnaces (EAFs) that can initially run on scrap .

Automakers are also adjusting their procurement strategies:

  • Volvo Car: Had aimed to start using hydrogen-based steel from SSAB in 2027 but has now agreed to begin with scrap-based fossil-free steel first .
  • BMW: Will use Thyssenkrupp's "bluemint recycled" steel for the iX3 from 2026, a mass-balanced product with a high share of recycled content .
  • Porsche: Has signed a deal with H2 Green Steel to use approximately 35,000 tons of low-CO₂ steel annually, produced with hydrogen, starting in 2026 .

Christian Levin, CEO of Traton's Scania, captured the industry's dilemma: "We believe that there will be a demand. (But) we are not commercially offering it yet and we are not yet buying it because it is not yet available" .

Industry Reaction: Criticism and Cautious Optimism

VDA (German Auto Lobby)

President Hildegard Müller criticized the plan in December, stating: "This means that our industry is once again dependent on developments over which it has no influence" .

Hydrogen Europe

The industry association welcomed the regulation, calling it a "positive signal" that creates a clear market for green steel. Its CEO, Jorgo Chatzimarkakis, even suggested bringing the target date forward to 2030 to "further increase the commercial viability of clean steel" .

VDMA (German Engineering Federation)

Hartmut Rauen expressed skepticism, arguing that the "theoretically good" idea is undermined by "very detailed specifications." He warned that the precise caps of 7% for steel and 3% for fuels are fraught with uncertainty .

Public Procurement: A 25% Green Mandate for 2029

Beyond the automotive sector, the Industrial Accelerator Act also mandates that from January 1, 2029, a minimum of 25% of steel procured for public projects must be low-emission . This provision is designed to kick-start demand and create a "lead market" for green steel in Europe, independent of the automotive industry's transition.

In a significant move, the Commission dropped a "made in EU" requirement for steel in public procurement, citing a forthcoming new trade measure to address global overcapacity . However, the voluntary label for low-emission steel has also been omitted from the final proposal .

Timeline of Key Events

Dec 2025
EU signals shift to 90% CO₂ cut, dropping full combustion engine ban .
Feb 2026
BMW and Porsche announce long-term green steel supply deals .
Mar 4, 2026
Industrial Accelerator Act officially presented; steel label reportedly scrapped .
Jan 1, 2029
25% green steel mandate for public procurement takes effect .
Jan 1, 2035
90% CO₂ reduction target for new cars; green steel offset mechanism active.

Expert Insight

"There's confusion amongst a lot of people after the Commission's proposal, trying to understand ... what's realistic, what the market would actually look like." — Chris Heron, Secretary General of E-Mobility Europe
"In light of the recently proposed trade measure addressing the negative trade-related effects of global overcapacity on the Union steel market, introducing a European preference for steel is not considered necessary." — European Commission, on the dropped 'made in EU' requirement .

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the EU's 2035 target for cars?
Automakers must reduce tailpipe CO₂ emissions by 90% compared to 2025 levels. The remaining 10% can be offset .
How does green steel help automakers meet these targets?
Manufacturers can use EU-made CO₂-reduced steel to contribute up to 7% towards their fleet emissions targets. The use of e-fuels can contribute another 3% .
Is green steel readily available in Europe?
No. Production is nascent and expensive. Green hydrogen is not yet available at scale, and many planned projects have been delayed. It is estimated to cost at least 30% more than conventional steel .
What is the definition of "green steel"?
There is currently no agreed-upon definition. The EU had planned to introduce a voluntary label, but it was reportedly scrapped from the final Industrial Accelerator Act due to internal disagreements .
What are automakers doing to secure green steel?
Several are signing long-term contracts with producers. BMW will use Thyssenkrupp's scrap-based steel from 2026, while Porsche has secured a deal with H2 Green Steel for hydrogen-based steel starting the same year .
What is the Industrial Accelerator Act?
A legislative package aimed at increasing the manufacturing sector's share of EU GDP to 20% by 2035. It includes measures for green steel, public procurement mandates, and foreign investment rules .